واکاوی ابعاد ادراک از عدم اطمینان محیطی در صادرات با رویکرد آمیخته

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه مدیریت‌‌‌‌، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ملایر‌‌‌‌، ملایر‌‌‌‌، ایران.

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مدیریت‌‌‌‌، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ملایر‌‌‌‌، ملایر‌‌‌‌، ایران

10.22034/jiba.2026.70396.2394

چکیده

این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی و تبیین ابعاد ادراک مدیران از عدم‌اطمینان محیطی در زمینه صادرات انجام شده است. با توجه به پیچیدگی فزاینده محیط بین‌الملل، شناخت دقیق این ابعاد برای تدوین راهبردهای اثربخش صادراتی یک الزام کلیدی محسوب می‌شود. تحقیق حاضر با رویکرد آمیخته انجام شد؛ در مرحله کیفی، از طریق ۱۵ مصاحبه نیمه‌ساختاریافته با خبرگان و تحلیل مضمون‌ (کدگذاری سه‌مرحله‌ای)، ۵ مقوله اصلی و ۱۳ مقوله فرعی شناسایی گردید. در مرحله کمی، برای غربال و اولویت‌بندی این ابعاد از روش دلفی فازی طی دو مرحله استفاده شد. یافته‌های بخش کمی نشان داد که «مشکلات مبادله ارز» با میانگین فازی قطعی ۸۶۹/۰ و «نوسانات نرخ ارز» با میانگین ۸۴۵/۰ بالاترین رتبه را در ایجاد ادراک عدم‌اطمینان دارند، در حالی که مؤلفه «تغییرات اقلیمی و آب‌وهوایی» در دور اول دلفی فازی حذف گردید. نتایج نهایی بیانگر آن است که درک دقیق این ابعاد به شرکت‌ها کمک می‌کند  تا در محیط‌های پرتلاطم، واکنش‌های سریع‌تر و استراتژی‌های سازگارتر اتخاذ کنند. در نهایت، پژوهش بر ضرورت تقویت یادگیری سازمانی و بهبود سازوکارهای تحلیل محیطی برای ارتقای عملکرد صادراتی تأکید دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Exploring the Dimensions of Perceived Environmental Uncertainty in Exporting Using a Mixed-Methods Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed mehdi Mirmehdi 1
  • Shabnam Zamanian 2
1 Department of Management, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Malayer, Malayer, Iran
2 M. A. Department of Management, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Malayer, Malayer, Iran
چکیده [English]

This study aims to identify and explain the dimensions of managers’ perceptions of environmental uncertainty in the context of exports. Given the increasing complexity of the international environment, accurate recognition of these dimensions is considered a key requirement for formulating effective export strategies. The present research adopted a mixed-methods approach. In the qualitative phase, through 15 semi-structured interviews with experts and thematic analysis‌ (three-stage coding), five main categories and thirteen subcategories were identified. In the quantitative phase, the fuzzy Delphi method was employed in two rounds to screen and prioritize these dimensions. The quantitative findings showed that “foreign exchange transaction problems,” with a defuzzified fuzzy mean of 0.869, and “exchange rate fluctuations,” with a mean of 0.845, ranked highest in shaping perceptions of uncertainty, while the component “climate and weather changes” was eliminated in the first round of the fuzzy Delphi. The final results indicate that an accurate understanding of these dimensions helps firms adopt faster responses and more adaptive strategies in turbulent environments. Ultimately, the study emphasizes the necessity of strengthening organizational learning and improving environmental analysis mechanisms to enhance export performance.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Perceived Environmental Uncertainty
  • Environmental Uncertainty in Exporting
  • Export Uncertainty
  • Fuzzy Delphi Method
  • Mixed-Methods Approach
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