ویژگی های سود پیش بینی شده توسط مدیریت و ریسک سقوط آتی قیمت سهام

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه مدیریت، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

2 کارشناسی ارشد حسابداری، گروه حسابداری، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت کسب و کار، گروه مدیریت، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

چکیده

هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر ویژگی‌های پیش‌بینی سود مدیریت بر ریسک سقوط آتی قیمت سهام است. عدم انتشار اخبار بد و انباشت آن‌ها در داخل شرکت منجر به ایجاد یک مخزن از اطلاعات منفی می‌گردد که انتشار یکباره این اخبار به بازار ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام را در پی دارد. در این راستا، انتشار سودهای پیش‌بینی‌شده با تأثیر بر اطلاعات در دسترس سرمایه‌گذاران بر ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام مؤثر خواهند بود. به‌منظور دستیابی به هدف پژوهش تعداد 101 شرکت از بین شرکت‌های پذیرفته‌شده در بازار اوراق بهادار تهران طی سال‌های 1381 الی 1395 در جامعه غربال‌شده قرار گرفت. برای آزمون فرضیه‌ها از الگوی رگرسیونی چندگانه استفاده‌شده است. مطابق با یافته‌ها، در بازار اوراق بهادار تهرن، خطای پیش‌بینی سود از ویژگی‌های پیش‌بینی تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر ریسک سقوط دارد. ولی فراوانی پیش‌بینی تأثیر معناداری ندارد. همچنین، با کنترل اثر خطای پیش‌بینی، خوش‌بینی مدیران در پیش‌بینی با یک معیار منجر به افزایش ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام می‌شود، ولی با معیار دوم تأثیر معناداری ندارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Forecasted Earnings Attributes by Management and Future Stock Price Crash Risk

نویسندگان [English]

  • Alireza Fazlzadeh 1
  • Sohrab Abdi 2
  • Kimiya Fazlzadeh 3
  • Esed Selmani Herab 3
1 Associate Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Economic and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2 Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economic and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
3 Department of Management, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Accumulation of negative information and bad news concealment inside the firm lead to bulk negative news about the firm. The sudden disclosure of this negative news is to increase the risk of the stock price crash. In this regard, it is logical to expect that the announcement of forecasted earnings that affect the information accessed by investors will produce an effect on stock price crash risk. This study aims to explore the effects of managements’ forecasted earnings attributes on the future stock price crash risk. To achieve this, we have screened 101 firms from among accepted firms in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2003-2017. And, multiple regression is used to test our hypotheses. Our findings suggest that the forecasting error attribute exerts a positive and significant effect on the stock price crash risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange; whereas, the effect produced by the frequency of the forecast is not statistically significant. Moreover, controlling for the effect of forecast error attribute, manager optimism leads to an increase in stock price crash risk when forecasting with a single criterion. However, we observed that a second criterion mutes the manager optimism effect.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Managers’ optimism
  • Future Stock Price Crash Risk
  • Forecasted Earnings Attributes
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